Key points:

Bitcoin fails to claim $70,000 as support as macro selling pressure sparks losses across global assets.

Middle East tensions remain at the forefront, but analysis sees hope in Bitcoin’s “surprising resilience.”

Traders stay split over whether bulls can rescue the current range.

Bitcoin comeback could be in “early stages”

Data from TradingView showed 1.5% daily BTC price losses, with
BTCUSD
giving back some of its early-week sprint to $71,800.

US stocks opened down on the day, with the Nasdaq Composite Index losing nearly 1%, while gold failed to pass $4,450. Oil inched toward $95 per barrel after an initial drop to start the week on the back of Iran peace rumors.

Markets remained on edge over the fate of oil passage through the Strait of Hormuz amid new Israeli strikes on Lebanon.

Commenting, trading company QCP Capital said that US President Donald Trump was seeking market stability despite the ongoing military action.

“Trump is navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical minefield and now has very little room to manoeuvre,” it wrote in its latest “Market Color” analysis.

“With equities hovering near key support and inflation pressures lifting rate-hike expectations, he cannot afford to unsettle markets.”

QCP said that BTC price action showed “surprising resilience” in the face of an escalating war.

“This resilience may reflect lower leverage across the system, but it could also signal the very early stages of a regime shift for BTC, where it no longer competes with traditional risk assets in the same way,” it added.

BTC price not “out of the woods entirely”

Continuing the cautiously bullish tone, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe flagged a series of higher lows for

BTCUSDT
beginning late last month.

“Bitcoin constantly prints higher lows since the crash early in February. It's a great sign and it shows that we're about to witness more strength,” he told X followers on the day.

“It doesn't say that we're out of the woods entirely, as those higher lows trigger a lot of liquidity if the markets get there. However, overall, as long as we hold these levels, I think that we're able to reach $77-80K.”

Others remained convinced that new lows were due, with trader Jelle warning of a “Bart Simpson” chart pattern playing out on low time frames.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile confirmed skepticism over the strength of nearby long-term trend line.

As Cointelegraph reported, the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,300 recently failed to act either as definitive support or strong resistance.

“The 200-week EMA is acting as both an unreliable resistance and an unreliable support, never truly confirming a clear role. Which thus could lend itself to further meandering in and around here before ultimately breaking down into additional Macro Downside over time,” he summarized on X.

source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:9175875e9094b:0-bitcoin-hints-at-regime-shift-as-btc-price-dips-to-69-5k-on-iran-nerves/
source: